转债新券火爆，近期中签率已不足0.001%，抢权配售策略解“抢券难”| 掘金可转债㉕

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market is experiencing unprecedented highs, with new bonds being highly sought after, leading to a significant drop in the subscription rate for online offerings, which has fallen below 0.001% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The recent issuance of KaiZhong convertible bonds saw an effective subscription amount of 86,628.64 billion yuan, with an actual allocation of 75.986 million yuan, resulting in a subscription rate of only 0.0009% [2][3]. - Since April of this year, newly issued convertible bonds have generally recorded a first-day increase of around 30%, driven by a scarcity of existing bonds and high demand from investors [2][4]. - The subscription rates for two other recent convertible bonds, Huachen and Hengshuai, were even lower at 0.0003% and 0.0004%, respectively, with both experiencing first-day surges of 57% [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - In light of the declining subscription rates and increasing difficulty in obtaining new convertible bonds, the strategy of "抢权配售" (rights allocation) is recommended, where investors buy the underlying stock to gain priority in subscribing to new bonds [5][6]. - The rights allocation strategy allows investors to lock in profits from the new bonds while being cautious of potential losses from declines in the underlying stock [5][6]. - Financial analysis indicates that the allocation ratio for convertible bonds has been increasing since 2018, with over 70% in 2023 and 2024, partly due to investor interest in rights allocation [5][6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Valuation - The recent limited number of convertible bonds that have broken below par indicates a high success rate for new bond subscriptions, with returns primarily driven by the conversion premium rather than par value [4]. - The valuation of new convertible bonds has reached historically high levels, influenced by a "new bond scarcity" and positive market sentiment [4]. - The China Securities Convertible Bond Index has risen by 16.29% this year, closing at 482.10 points, marking a ten-year high [5].