“股债跷跷板”效应持续：A股翻红再创新高，国债期货转跌

Core Viewpoint - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident as funds flow from the bond market to the stock market, leading to a decline in bond prices while stock indices reach new highs [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 20, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a 10-year high of 3766.21 points, while most government bond futures declined [1]. - From August 1 to August 18, the Shanghai Composite Index rose from 3568 to 3728 points, with corresponding increases in government bond yields across various maturities [2]. - On August 18, major stock indices hit recent highs, coinciding with significant declines in government bond futures, with the 30-year main contract dropping by 1.33% [3]. Group 2: Government Bond Yields - The yields on 1-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds increased by 1.31 basis points, 8.13 basis points, and 10.196 basis points, respectively, with the 30-year yield surpassing 2% [2]. - The yield on the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 02" rose by 0.9 basis points to 2.0375% [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Ministry of Finance announced support operations for government bonds to enhance liquidity in the secondary market, but this did not reverse the downward trend in bond prices [4]. - The strong performance of the stock market is identified as a core reason for the decline in government bond futures, with increased risk appetite and tight funding conditions contributing to market pressure [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current market environment shows weak support for bond bulls, with expectations of limited downward movement in bond prices due to a combination of slow domestic demand recovery and a generally loose liquidity environment [5]. - Despite short-term pressures on the bond market, there is a belief that fundamental and liquidity support will prevent overly pessimistic outlooks for the bond market in the medium to long term [5].