美关税持续冲击，日本7月出口创四年多最大跌幅

Group 1 - Japan's exports fell by 2.6% year-on-year in July, marking the largest decline in over four years, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on automobiles, auto parts, and steel [1] - Despite the drop in export value, export volume increased by 1.2%, indicating that exporters are lowering prices to absorb the costs of U.S. tariffs [1] - Japan's trade deficit in July reached 117.5 billion yen, with imports decreasing by 7.5% to 9.48 trillion yen, driven by significant declines in crude oil, coal, and liquefied natural gas imports [1] Group 2 - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 10.1% in July, with automotive exports dropping significantly by 28.4% and auto parts by 17.4% [1] - Japanese automakers are absorbing some of the tariff costs to maintain sales, as evidenced by a smaller decline of only 3.2% in the volume of car exports to the U.S. [1] - The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on Japanese imported cars and parts starting in April, with steel tariffs increased to 50% in June, affecting approximately one-third of Japan's total exports to the U.S. [1] Group 3 - The recent trade agreement reached at the end of July suggests that U.S. tariffs on automobiles and most goods may be reduced to 15%, but implementation will take time [2] - Economic analysts warn that Japan could face a recession depending on the extent of the tariff impacts [2] - The Bank of Japan's decision-making may become more cautious due to the ongoing decline in exports, despite the economy showing unexpected resilience in the second quarter [3] Group 4 - Market expectations indicate that the Bank of Japan will likely maintain its current policy stance during the upcoming policy meeting on September 19 [4] - Analysts note that the decline in Japan's auto exports is a clear sign of the tariff impacts, with Japanese goods losing price competitiveness in the U.S. market [4] - The timing of any potential tariff reductions remains uncertain, with significant negative impacts anticipated if no reductions occur [4]