8月LPR报价不变！业内：下一次下调可能在四季度初

Core Viewpoint - The LPR (Loan Prime Rate) remains unchanged in August 2025, with the 1-year LPR at 3% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, reflecting a stable monetary policy environment amid various economic factors [1][2]. Group 1: LPR and Monetary Policy - The LPR was last adjusted in May 2025, with both the 1-year and 5-year rates lowered by 10 basis points [1]. - The average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans in the first half of the year were approximately 3.3% and 3.1%, respectively, showing a decrease of about 45 and 60 basis points compared to the same period last year [1]. - The People's Bank of China aims to improve the quality of LPR quotes to better reflect market interest rates and to encourage financial institutions to adhere to risk pricing principles [1]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing LPR - The decision to maintain the LPR is influenced by several factors, including the recent political bureau meeting that did not suggest lowering policy rates or reserve requirements, and concerns over potential capital outflows due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2]. - The Chinese economy exceeded its GDP targets in the first half of the year, leading to a cautious approach in utilizing policy space [2]. - Current issues in the real estate market are more related to residents' income and employment expectations rather than the absolute level of interest rates [2]. Group 3: Future Expectations - The State Council's recent meeting emphasized the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market, leading to market expectations of new policies [2]. - Analysts predict that the next LPR adjustment may occur in early Q4 2025, with a potential reduction greater than the previous 10 basis points [2].