全球牛市？因何而起，因何而止

Core Viewpoint - The global equity markets have shown significant recovery and growth since the implementation of the 4.7 tariff policy, with an average increase of 24% post-policy compared to a 14% increase year-to-date, indicating a potential upward trend overcoming tariff-induced volatility [1]. Historical Bull Markets 1. 1991-2000: "New Economy" Driven Internet Bull Market - From early 1991 to March 2000, major global stock markets experienced continuous growth, with the Nasdaq index rising over 500% and significant gains in European and Japanese markets [2]. - The information technology revolution and the rise of "new economy" companies like Microsoft and Intel drove this growth, with the S&P 500's net profit growing at an average of 15% annually from 1995 to 2000 [2][5]. - The bull market ended in 2000 due to the bursting of the internet bubble and subsequent economic recession [5]. 2. 2003-2007: Globalization Dividend and Credit Expansion Bull Market - The global stock market rebounded from March 2003 to October 2007, with the S&P 500 rising approximately 90% and emerging markets seeing gains over 200% [6]. - Economic recovery in the U.S. and China's entry into the WTO fueled demand for commodities, leading to significant growth in resource-rich countries [6]. - The bull market concluded with the 2008 financial crisis, triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis and subsequent liquidity panic [6]. 3. 2009-2019: Long Bull Market Driven by Quantitative Easing (QE) - The bull market began in 2009, with a gradual recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, characterized by strong performance in technology, consumer, and healthcare sectors [9]. - Central banks' QE policies and low interest rates facilitated capital inflow into the stock market, with technology companies driving high profit growth [9]. - The bull market ended unexpectedly due to the global disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 [9]. 4. 2022-Present: Economic Recovery and AI - The current market rally has been attributed to post-pandemic economic recovery and the emergence of AI technologies, with nearly 70% of S&P 500 companies exceeding earnings expectations in recent reports [11]. - The global liquidity environment has improved, with the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate hikes and the European Central Bank expected to lower rates in mid-2024 [13]. - The ongoing bull market is characterized by new industry drivers, a supportive monetary policy environment, and improving earnings and economic growth [13].