港元港息急升压制港股，A股全年涨幅有望迎头赶上

Core Viewpoint - The recent outflow of southbound funds from Hong Kong stocks, amounting to approximately 14.68 billion HKD, raises questions about whether the Hong Kong stock market can maintain its lead over the A-share market, especially as the A-share index has shown stronger performance recently [1][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 20, the Hang Seng Index has risen by 25.45% this year, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 12.37% [1]. - In the past month, the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by nearly 6%, while the Hang Seng Index has only risen by 0.69% [1][9]. - The recent performance of the A-share market, particularly its ability to attract investor interest, suggests it may catch up to the Hong Kong market by the end of 2025 [2][9]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Currency Dynamics - The one-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) surged by 56 basis points on August 18-19, reaching 2.574%, the highest in nearly three months, primarily due to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's (HKMA) intervention to stabilize the currency [1][3]. - The HKMA has intervened 12 times since June, absorbing a total of 119.97 billion HKD, which is 92.7% of the liquidity injected in early May [1][4]. - The recent rise in HIBOR is seen as a correction from previously low levels, indicating a potential return to mean [5]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Market Sentiment - Southbound fund inflows into Hong Kong stocks have reached over 950 billion HKD this year, setting a record high for annual net inflows [10]. - The sentiment among institutions is becoming more cautious, yet the overall bull market trend in Hong Kong remains intact [10]. - The anticipated interest rate cuts in the U.S. may benefit more cyclical sectors, potentially expanding the current market rally beyond technology and finance [11].