“股债跷跷板”效应再现 债市交易逻辑或已切换

Core Viewpoint - The capital market is experiencing volatility again, reflecting the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with the equity market rebounding strongly while the bond market faces pressure [1][2]. Market Performance - On August 20, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.04% to 3766.21 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.89%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.23% [3]. - In the bond market, most government bond futures declined, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.35% to 116.050 yuan, and the 10-year main contract down by 0.18% to 107.855 yuan [3]. Shift in Trading Logic - Analysts suggest that the trading logic in the bond market may have shifted from a "fundamentals + liquidity" driven approach to a "major asset allocation" logic due to changes in risk appetite [4]. - The current bond market is under pressure, with limited conditions for price increases from both asset and liability perspectives, as traditional institutional investors are finding bonds less attractive [4]. Asset Allocation Trends - There is a growing demand for mixed equity-debt products as residents seek better returns amid declining savings yields, potentially diverting funds from the bond market [9]. - The performance of pure debt assets has been weak, with money market funds outperforming pure bond funds in terms of returns and volatility [9]. Future Outlook - The "look at stocks, do bonds" strategy may continue in the third quarter, with the bond market expected to remain in a volatile state [10]. - Historical data indicates that previous stock-strong, bond-weak periods lasted longer, but the current trend has seen a reduction in duration and yield increases [10]. - Analysts believe that the bond market's pressure may have peaked, and there is potential for gradual accumulation at higher levels [10][11].