港元港息急升压制港股 A股全年涨幅有望迎头赶上

Group 1 - Southbound funds experienced a rare net outflow of approximately 14.68 billion HKD on August 20, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.17%, significantly underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's 1.04% increase [1] - As of August 20, the Hang Seng Index has risen 25.45% year-to-date, leading the Shanghai Composite Index by 12.37% [1] - The recent surge in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) has drawn global investor attention, with the 1-month HIBOR rising sharply to 2.574%, marking a three-month high [1][3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in the market to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar, buying a total of 104.41 billion HKD on August 13 and 14 [1] - Since June, the HKMA has intervened 12 times, absorbing a total of 119.97 billion HKD, which is 92.7% of the liquidity injected in early May [1][4] - The recent rise in HIBOR is attributed to the HKMA's actions to manage the exchange rate within the 7.75 to 7.85 range, affecting liquidity and interbank rates [3][4] Group 3 - The recent increase in HIBOR is the second significant rise since May, influenced by both external and internal factors, including the overall weakness of the US dollar [4] - The liquidity in the banking system has decreased to 53.716 billion HKD, which is close to the threshold where significant upward pressure on HIBOR and the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate may occur [4][6] - The market sentiment has shifted, with hedge funds closing their long positions on the US dollar against the Hong Kong dollar, indicating a potential for further appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar [2][6] Group 4 - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market has been under pressure due to rising interest rates and the strong performance of the A-share market, which has gained nearly 6% in the past month compared to the Hang Seng Index's 0.69% [8][9] - Analysts predict that the A-share market may catch up to the performance of the Hong Kong stock market in the latter part of 2025, driven by strong market sentiment and structural differentiation within the market [9][10] - Despite a cautious sentiment among institutions, the overall bull market trend for Hong Kong stocks remains intact, with significant net inflows from southbound funds reaching over 950 billion HKD this year [10][11]