一国官宣：不降息！

Group 1 - The Bank of Israel has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.5%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The inflation rate in Israel has decreased over the past 12 months, with July's rate at 3.1%, slightly above the target upper limit, and forecasts suggest inflation will return to the target range in the coming months [3] - The central bank highlights various risks that could accelerate inflation or deviate from targets, including geopolitical developments, demand growth amid supply constraints, and deteriorating global trade conditions [3] Group 2 - The Israeli government has decided to raise the fiscal deficit ceiling to 5.2%, amid high geopolitical uncertainty and various potential developments in the security situation [3] - The central bank's governor, Amir Yaron, expressed hopes for three interest rate cuts next year, bringing the rate down to 3.75%, although the timing for such cuts remains uncertain [3] - A lower risk premium could lead to rapid demand expansion, and the appreciation of the shekel is expected to help reduce inflation [4] Group 3 - The Israeli economy faces uncertainties due to market and technological investments, with U.S. tariffs posing risks to the economy [4] - The deep involvement of pension funds in the stock market and the technology sector's reliance on U.S. venture capital are directly impacted by these uncertainties [4] - Amir Yaron emphasized the need for Israel to "reduce uncertainty" as quickly as possible to stabilize the economy [4]