会议纪要显示美联储内部分歧加剧 9月降息预期升温

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's July 29-30 meeting minutes reveal increasing internal divisions regarding monetary policy, particularly concerning tariff impacts, inflation risks, and employment market conditions [1][2] - The decision to maintain interest rates in the 4.25% to 4.5% range was made with a vote of 9 to 2, marking the first time since 1993 that two Fed governors disagreed with the majority [1] - Officials expressed differing views on the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some advocating for more time to assess trade policy effects, while others argued that waiting for clearer signals is impractical [1] Group 2 - In the employment market, some officials noted low unemployment rates and near "maximum employment," while others pointed to slowing wage growth and reduced job creation, indicating a potential cooling in labor demand [2] - The minutes highlighted concerns about economic activity growth remaining subdued in the second half of the year, with actual income growth slowing potentially suppressing household consumption [2] - The upcoming employment report, which revised down non-farm payrolls by 258,000 for May and June, may exacerbate the Fed's internal concerns about economic slowdown [2] Group 3 - External political pressures complicate the Fed's internal divisions, with President Trump repeatedly calling for significant rate cuts and criticizing Fed Chair Powell's leadership [3] - Both Waller and Bowman, appointed by Trump, are viewed as potential successors, with Waller advocating for gradual rate cuts of up to 150 basis points [3] - Powell acknowledged the strong and logical viewpoints of Bowman and Waller, emphasizing that the meeting discussions were thorough [3]