美关税阴影笼罩日本经济前景

Economic Growth - In Q2, Japan's real GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, translating to an annualized growth rate of 1.0%, marking five consecutive quarters of positive growth [1] - However, analysts warn that the impact of U.S. tariffs has not fully materialized, indicating potential downward risks for Japan's economy in Q3 [1] Consumer Spending - Personal consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economy, increased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, showing weak growth momentum [2] - Record-breaking hot weather this summer has stimulated clothing purchases, contributing to personal consumption, but rising food prices have suppressed overall spending [2] - There are concerns that prolonged heat may deter outdoor activities and affect vegetable growth, potentially leading to higher prices for fresh produce and negatively impacting consumption [2] Business Investment - Corporate equipment investment rose by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, while private residential investment increased by 0.8% [2] - Public demand, including government consumption and public investment, declined by 0.3%, contributing negatively to economic growth [2] - The main driver of corporate equipment investment growth was software investment, although there are concerns about the sustainability of this growth given the decline in real wages over the past six months [2] Trade and Tariff Impact - Japanese automakers have absorbed tariff costs to maintain sales, which has significantly reduced their profits [3] - Although the actual GDP data did not reflect severe impacts from U.S. tariffs, the long-term effects on corporate profitability and investment remain uncertain [3] - The U.S.-Japan tariff agreement is still ambiguous, with potential for increased costs to be passed on to consumers, which could lead to reduced sales and exports [3][4] Economic Forecast - Japan's Cabinet Office has revised its GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year from 1.2% to 0.7%, citing risks from U.S. trade policies [4] - The tariffs are expected to directly reduce Japan's exports to the U.S. and indirectly affect exports to other countries, further impacting Japan's economic outlook [4] Tariff Negotiations - There is ongoing uncertainty regarding the U.S.-Japan tariff agreement, with Japan excluded from certain preferential treatments in recent U.S. documents [5] - If the U.S. imposes high tariffs on semiconductors, it could lead to a 0.42% decline in Japan's GDP within a year [5] - The U.S. has indicated it will monitor the implementation of the tariff agreement quarterly, raising concerns about potential future tariff increases [5]