2025年中国氟化铝产业供需及价格概况：需求端推动行业再度进入涨价周期[图]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum fluoride industry in China is experiencing structural fluctuations in supply and demand from 2018 to 2024, with continuous capacity expansion but actual production being adjusted due to environmental policies and technological upgrades. Domestic demand is primarily driven by the electrolytic aluminum industry, which accounts for over 70% of the demand, while export fluctuations significantly impact the supply-demand balance [1][9]. Industry Development Overview - Aluminum fluoride (AlF₃) is a stable inorganic compound primarily used in electrolytic aluminum production. There are three main preparation methods for aluminum fluoride, with dry methods being preferred due to lower impurity content and better flow properties compared to wet methods, which have been largely phased out [2]. Policy Background - Local policies in provinces like Hubei, Henan, and Zhejiang focus on the comprehensive utilization of fluorine resources, development of high-value-added fluorinated products, and promoting technological innovation to drive industry upgrades towards low-energy and low-emission processes [4][5]. Industry Chain - The upstream of the aluminum fluoride industry includes the extraction and processing of raw materials such as fluorite and hydrofluoric acid, concentrated in resource-rich areas like Hunan and Zhejiang. The midstream involves the production of aluminum fluoride, while the downstream applications are primarily in electrolytic aluminum, glass manufacturing, ceramics, pharmaceuticals, and electronics [7][8]. Current Industry Status - From 2018 to 2024, the supply-demand relationship in the aluminum fluoride industry has shown structural fluctuations, with production capacity expanding but actual output being affected by environmental policies and technological upgrades. In 2024, the production and demand of aluminum fluoride in China are projected to be 790,000 tons and 656,000 tons, respectively, showing slight growth compared to 2023 [9][11]. Import and Export Dynamics - In 2024, China's aluminum fluoride import and export volumes are expected to be 0.02 million tons and 13.41 million tons, respectively. The export market faces challenges from low-price competition from emerging countries and green trade barriers from developed nations, while domestic companies are focusing on strategies like long-term contracts and cost control to stabilize exports [13]. Competitive Landscape - The aluminum fluoride industry in China is characterized by a highly concentrated competitive landscape, dominated by a few specialized production companies that integrate the entire industry chain, from core technology research and development to large-scale production and diversified market sales [15][16]. Development Trends - The aluminum fluoride industry is accelerating its transition towards green and low-carbon practices, with companies developing clean production technologies and circular economy models to reduce energy consumption and pollution emissions. There is also a focus on high-value-added products to meet the demands of high-end markets such as new energy batteries and semiconductor materials [17].