中邮证券-人工智能行业美股AI应用：在加速落地中分化-250821

Core Viewpoint - The performance of US stocks in the AI Agent sector has been segmented into three phases, influenced by market dynamics and AI monetization progress, with distinct trends observed in each phase [1]. Group 1: Market Phases - Phase 1 (January to mid-February): AI application companies exceeded expectations, leading to optimistic future projections, with notable performance in the AI Agent sector [1]. - Phase 2 (Mid-February to early April): Tariff expectations and delayed Fed rate cuts negatively impacted industry sentiment, resulting in a general decline in valuations for Agent stocks [1]. - Phase 3 (From early April to present): The diminishing impact of tariffs and accelerated annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth for startups have led to differentiated performance among AI Agent stocks [1]. Group 2: Notable Performers - Palantir: Stock price increased by 141.5% from the beginning of the year to August 11, 2023, driven by the launch of the AIP platform and a projected total revenue of $1.004 billion for Q2 2025, up 48% year-on-year [2]. - Spotify: Stock price rose by 54.1% during the same period, with AI enhancements allowing for product price increases, resulting in a Q2 operating profit of €406 million, a 53% year-on-year increase [2]. - Applovin: Stock price increased by 43.8%, with advertising revenue growing over 60% since Q3 2023 due to AI-driven value delivery [3]. - SAP: Stock price rose by 17.7%, with over half of cloud orders in Q2 2025 including AI use cases, leading to a revenue of €9.027 billion, up 8.9% year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Underperformers - Companies struggling with AI-related issues include those lacking synergy between AI and core business, leading to unmet growth expectations, and those facing high initial AI investment costs that negatively impacted profit margins [3]. - Salesforce: Despite strong performance in AI-related segments, overall stock price fell by 30.2% from the beginning of the year to August 11, 2023, due to slower growth in traditional IT spending areas [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The current growth logic suggests selecting A-share related stocks based on AI's ability to empower traditional companies and improve profitability through cost reduction and price increases [4].