钢材：螺纹和热卷基本面分化 钢材维持震荡格局

Market Performance - The futures market showed resilience with a rebound after an initial decline, and an increase in open interest was noted. The basis strengthened, with steel billet prices stable at 3090 yuan per ton and actual transaction prices for rebar in East China remaining at 3170 yuan per ton. The October futures contract was at a discount of 38 yuan to the spot price, while hot-rolled coil was at a discount of 28 yuan to the spot price [1] Cost and Profit - On the cost side, coking coal production continues to recover, while coal mines maintain inventory reduction, with marginal conditions not weakening. Iron ore inventories at ports have slightly increased, and steel production has seen a minor uptick, although seasonal demand for steel is declining. The expectation of reduced coking coal supply persists, leading to significant price volatility. Steel profits are currently declining, with the profit ranking from high to low being steel billet > hot-rolled coil > rebar > cold-rolled coil [2] Supply - From January to July, iron element production increased by 18 million tons, a growth of 3.1%. In August, production rebounded compared to July, primarily due to a notable increase in daily scrap steel consumption. Current molten iron production is stable at 2.41 million tons, with daily scrap steel consumption at 55800 tons, up by 0.6%. The total production of the five major steel products increased by 24000 tons to 8.716 million tons. By product type, rebar production decreased by 7000 tons to 2.205 million tons, while hot-rolled coil production increased by 7000 tons to 3.156 million tons. Since July, production of the five major products has exceeded apparent demand, leading to inventory pressure [3] Demand - From January to July, the apparent demand for the five major steel products remained flat year-on-year (-0.2%), while production decreased more than demand (-1.3%). The increase in iron element production (+3%) is primarily directed towards non-five major products and steel billets. Domestic demand has decreased year-on-year, while external demand has increased significantly, with substantial growth in both direct and indirect steel exports. Overall steel demand has increased year-on-year, with average daily production rising, while apparent demand remained flat and inventory decreased year-on-year. In terms of month-on-month performance, the seasonal decline was not significant. The impact of tariffs on demand was offset by the increase in direct exports. Rebar apparent demand decreased, dragging down overall apparent demand. The apparent demand for the five major products decreased by 15000 tons to 831000 tons, with rebar down by 201000 tons to 190000 tons, and hot-rolled coil up by 8000 tons to 315000 tons [4] Inventory - This week saw a significant increase in inventory, primarily driven by traders, while steel mills' inventory growth was limited. The inventory of the five major products increased by 40600 tons to 1.416 million tons, with rebar up by 30500 tons to 587200 tons, and hot-rolled coil up by 840 tons to 357500 tons. By product type, rebar showed a clear increase in inventory due to supply exceeding demand, while plate inventory remained stable with limited accumulation [5] Overall View - The market showed resilience with initial declines followed by rebounds. The spot market followed the fluctuations of futures, with a strengthening basis. Data indicates a continuous decline in rebar apparent demand and significant inventory accumulation. Hot-rolled coil supply and demand remained stable without significant deterioration. Current data shows a notable decline in rebar demand in August, leading to increased inventory levels. The differentiation in monthly price differences between rebar and hot-rolled coil indicates a weakening trend for rebar and a strengthening trend for hot-rolled coil. Technically, hot-rolled coil failed to break downwards, returning to a fluctuating pattern. Considering the current steel demand and coking coal supply situation, the steel market is expected to maintain a high-level fluctuating pattern, with a recommendation for a wait-and-see approach [6]