Core Viewpoint - The report by Shenwan Hongyuan highlights that Cao Cao Mobility, a significant ride-sharing platform under Geely Group, is actively developing customized fleets and Robotaxi autonomous driving services, showcasing a clear path to profitability and high growth potential [1][2]. Company Overview - Cao Cao Mobility operates in the ride-hailing service, vehicle sales, and vehicle leasing sectors, making it a key player in China's shared mobility market [1]. - The company has the largest customized ride-hailing fleet in the country, benefiting from Geely Group's strong vehicle research and manufacturing capabilities [1]. Business Strategy - The company employs a "pre-subsidy penetration + post-subsidy optimization" strategy for rapid market expansion, which is expected to improve revenue as user habits develop and operational scale increases [1]. - Revenue growth has consistently outpaced the industry average over the past two years, with a forecast for continued high growth in order volume over the next three years [1][2]. Financial Performance - Despite concerns about ongoing losses, Shenwan Hongyuan believes these are a temporary characteristic of the customized vehicle model, with operating cash flow turning positive in recent years and losses narrowing [2]. - The company is expected to achieve positive EBIT next year and reach profit margins comparable to industry leaders in the following year [2]. Technological Development - Cao Cao Mobility has established a comprehensive ecosystem in the Robotaxi sector, effectively mitigating external technology dependency risks [2]. - The self-developed "Qianli Haohan" autonomous driving solution supports its Robotaxi demonstration operations, with customized vehicles optimized for energy consumption, space, and safety in autonomous driving scenarios [2]. Market Position and Valuation - The company possesses differentiated advantages in customized operations, cost control, and technological ecosystem, with a clear path to profitability [2]. - Shenwan Hongyuan's absolute valuation method estimates the current target market value of Cao Cao Mobility at HKD 46.9 billion (RMB 42.8 billion), indicating approximately 21% upside potential, leading to a "buy" rating [2]. Stock Performance - Cao Cao Mobility was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 25, with an initial price of HKD 41.94 per share, and has seen a steady increase in stock price, reaching HKD 77 by August 19, representing a 69.3% increase from the issue price [3]. - The company is anticipated to be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect list on September 8, according to predictions from institutions like Morgan Stanley [3].
申万宏源:首予曹操出行(02643)“买入”评级 目标市值469亿港元 对应21%上行空间