Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that southbound funds have become a crucial driving force in the Hong Kong stock market, with their influence expected to deepen due to unique investment opportunities and long-term policy support [1][2] - Southbound funds account for over one-third of the daily turnover on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and hold nearly 15% of the free float market capitalization, with both metrics showing over 30% growth compared to before 2024 [2] - Cumulative net inflows from southbound funds have reached $14 billion since 2025, surpassing the total for 2024, with daily inflows increasing by 84.6% year-on-year [2] Group 2 - Historically, stocks included in the southbound trading scheme show strong performance prior to inclusion, with an average increase of 3.7% in the 30 days before inclusion, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 5.2% [3] - In February, 26 out of 27 stocks that were included in the southbound scheme saw price increases in the 30 days prior, with an average absolute return of 41% [3] - Post-inclusion, stocks may experience short-term pressure, with an average relative return of -2.0% against the Hang Seng Index in the following 30 days, but a long-term excess return of 4.6% over 90 days [3] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley has developed a southbound stock selection model (MSSBT) that accurately predicts stocks to be included, achieving an average hit rate of 85% across the last four semi-annual inclusion cycles [4] - The model's hit rate reached 97% in the August 2024 cycle, with a simulated portfolio showing an average absolute return of 10.1% in the 30 days prior to inclusion [4] - The model employs strict selection criteria, including market capitalization above HKD 50 billion and compliance with turnover standards, while excluding stocks with high ownership concentration [4] Group 4 - In September, 19 stocks are predicted to be included in the southbound trading scheme, with a focus on the healthcare (6 stocks) and industrial (5 stocks) sectors, indicating increased interest in innovative drug development and high-end manufacturing [5][6] - The top five candidates by market capitalization include Cao Cao Inc (02643), Yimeng Biotech (09606), Nanshan Aluminum International (02610), Zhengli New Energy (03677), and Yunzhisheng (09678) [6] Group 5 - The recommended strategy for maximizing returns includes entering positions one month prior to inclusion, diversifying with equal-weighted stock selections, and selling on the official inclusion date to lock in short-term gains [8]
摩根士丹利重磅策略：南向通成港股 “定海神针“ 周六福(06168)、云知声（09678）等或迎先机