橡树资本联合创始人警告美股处泡沫初期

Core Viewpoint - Oaktree Capital Management co-founder Howard Marks warns that the U.S. stock market is in the "early stages" of a bubble, despite not yet reaching a critical point for a pullback [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Marks highlights that current prices are too high, reminiscent of the late 1990s when the market was overly enthusiastic about tech stocks, leading to Alan Greenspan's warning of "irrational exuberance" [1] - He notes that the last significant market adjustment occurred 16 years ago, indicating a long period without major corrections [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Marks suggests that it is time to increase defensive positions in investment portfolios, advocating for credit products over stocks as a defensive strategy [1] - He acknowledges that while bond spreads are tight, credit investments still offer more defensiveness compared to equities [1] Group 3: Global Investment Environment - Despite a slight deterioration in the fundamental investment environment in the U.S., Marks asserts that it remains the best investment location globally, citing a lack of vitality and ideal regulatory conditions in other regions [1]