通胀数据喜忧参半 加拿大央行降息决策陷两难

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian annual inflation rate decreased from 1.9% to 1.7% in July, primarily due to a 16.1% year-on-year decline in gasoline prices, while core inflation indicators remain strong [1] Inflation Data - The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in July, with the annual inflation rate falling below the Bank of Canada's target midpoint of 2% [1] - Excluding gasoline prices, the July CPI increased by 2.5% [1] - Food prices rose by 3.3%, and housing costs, which are the largest component of the CPI, increased by 3%, marking the first rise since February of the previous year [1] Core Inflation Indicators - The CPI-median increased from 3% to 3.1%, while the CPI-trim remained stable at 3% [1] - Despite the annual inflation rate being below the target range, 37.3% of the CPI basket saw price increases exceeding 3% [1] Market Expectations - The probability of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada on September 17 is estimated at 32% according to money market data [1] Currency Movement - The USD/CAD exchange rate was reported at 1.3881, with an increase of 0.08%, breaking through resistance levels above 1.38 [1] - The upward momentum of the USD/CAD pair is supported by strong daily and intraday trend indicators, suggesting a continuation of the upward trend [1]