村镇银行加速“村改支”背景下的发展之道

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing reform of village banks in China is expected to accelerate mergers and consolidations, particularly as they align with the reforms of rural credit cooperatives, raising questions about the future development and differentiation of village banks [1] Group 1: Current Status and Trends - As of mid-2024, there are over 1,600 village banks operating across 31 provinces in China, employing more than 100,000 personnel, indicating a robust organizational structure [2] - The overall operational status of village banks is stable and improving, with controllable risks, although significant polarization remains evident within the sector [2] Group 2: Reform Objectives and Impacts - The primary goal of the village bank reform is to mitigate risks by restructuring and merging high-risk institutions, which is expected to reduce the number of village banks while enhancing the overall risk management capabilities [3] - Some provinces have adopted a "one-size-fits-all" approach, merging all village banks into larger commercial or rural banks regardless of their performance, which may not be the most effective strategy [3] Group 3: Predictions and Industry Ecology - The "village bank to branch" reform model is suitable for high-risk village banks, but indiscriminate merging based solely on the parent bank's characteristics is not advisable [4] - Post-reform, village banks are anticipated to optimize governance and strengthen their overall capabilities, leading to the emergence of a number of high-quality, specialized village banks [4] Group 4: Challenges and Recommendations - A significant challenge in the reform process is the "one-size-fits-all" policy adopted by some provinces, which could hinder the effectiveness of the reforms [5] - Merging stable and well-managed village banks with nearby counterparts is suggested as a viable option to maintain the village bank identity while addressing risks and enhancing strength [5] Group 5: Differentiation and Management - Village banks that have performed well and provided effective services to small and micro enterprises are likely to retain their competitive advantages post-merger, as their local knowledge and flexibility are difficult to replicate [6] - The parent banks should consider granting autonomy to well-performing village banks, respecting their independence while ensuring effective resource allocation and risk management [7]