贺利氏预计黄金价格短期在3200-3600美元/盎司区间波动

Core Viewpoint - The gold price is expected to fluctuate between $3200 and $3600 per ounce in the short term, with current trading around $3300 to $3400 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical factors and U.S. monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent gold market has shown slight fluctuations, with London gold prices experiencing minor movements within the $3300 to $3400 range [1]. - The easing of the global tariff war has led to U.S. gold imports not being subjected to tariffs, contributing to the price stability [1]. - After reaching $3400 per ounce, gold prices retreated, and the premium of New York over London decreased from $100 to $55 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Following disappointing non-farm payroll data, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has continued to meet expectations, although the credibility of the data is perceived to be declining [1]. - The market still anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, despite cautious statements from the Fed and increasing internal divisions among officials [1]. Group 3: Central Bank Activity - High gold prices are suppressing physical consumption and dampening investment enthusiasm, yet central banks continue to increase their gold holdings [2]. - The People's Bank of China added 60,000 ounces of gold in July, marking the ninth consecutive month of increases, which may provide ongoing support for gold prices if this trend continues [2].