后四个月生猪产业利润或仍将由上游向下游转移

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming profits are expected to decline after the recovery of production capacity in 2025, while slaughtering margins are showing signs of improvement, indicating a potential shift of profits from upstream to downstream in the pig industry chain [1][9]. Group 1: Pig Farming Profits - In 2025, the average profit for self-breeding pig farming is projected to be 196.64 yuan per head, a decrease of 58.98 yuan per head or 23.07% compared to 2024 [2]. - The average profit for piglet fattening is expected to be 166.18 yuan per head, down by 259.17 yuan per head or 60.93% year-on-year [2]. - The average income from pig farming in 2025 is estimated at 1837.10 yuan per head, a decline of 187.90 yuan per head or 9.28% year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Slaughtering Margins - The average slaughtering margin for pigs in 2025 is projected to be 30.55 yuan per head, an increase of 24.88 yuan per head compared to the previous year [6]. - The daily average slaughter volume for sample enterprises has increased by 8.14% year-on-year, contributing to the improvement in slaughtering margins [8]. - The average cost per head for slaughtering has decreased due to increased slaughter volume, leading to a rise in margins from a low of 12.45 yuan per head in early July to 24.85 yuan per head in mid-August [6][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The pig farming profits are expected to experience a decline followed by a rebound in the latter part of the year, while slaughtering margins are likely to steadily increase [9][10]. - The market for pig farming may remain low in August and September, but demand for heavier pigs is anticipated to rise in the fourth quarter, potentially supporting prices [9]. - Slaughtering margins are expected to increase primarily from September to December, with a peak during the traditional curing season in December [10].