瑞银：料市场热度可持续更长时间 H股短期或会盘整

Core Viewpoint - UBS believes that the market heat can sustain for a longer period based on multiple indicators, despite recent increases in A-share financing balance being relatively low compared to market value [1] Group 1: Market Indicators - A-share financing balance has risen recently but remains low as a percentage of market value [1] - Bank deposits continue to grow strongly, indicating that more savings may flow into the stock market as it rises [1] - Trading volume remains high, which may encourage more opportunistic investors to participate [1] - Historically, A-share performance is highly correlated with trading volume [1] - Compared to other major regions, A-share valuations are not high [1] Group 2: H-share Market Analysis - The attractiveness of H-share risk-reward has diminished due to institutional-driven market dynamics [1] - Short-term consolidation in H-shares is expected due to earnings forecast downgrades, rising HIBOR, and delays in the launch of the Deepseek model [1] Group 3: Market Performance and Expectations - Recent macro data and policy support have been relatively muted, leading to downward revisions in market earnings expectations, which historically negatively impact stock performance [1] - Despite this, the stock market continues to rise, with the CSI 300 index up 4% and the Hang Seng index up 2% in August [1] - Retail fund inflows may be a driving factor, with A-share trading volume increasing by 80% year-on-year and financing balance significantly rising [1] Group 4: Price Divergence and Future Trends - Historical analysis shows that A-shares can deviate from fundamentals for extended periods, while H-shares typically do so for shorter durations [2] - Increased retail participation is expected as A-shares strengthen, suggesting greater upside potential for A-shares [2] - AH premium may widen from current levels [2] - Potential factors that could reverse recent price increases include regulatory intervention and significant overseas market pullbacks, though the likelihood of regulatory intervention is currently low [2] - Policy support in October is anticipated, with expectations that if the economy weakens in Q3, there will be a baseline support from policies [2]