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豆粕交易逻辑为弱现实与强预期 短期或宽幅震荡
Jin Tou Wang·2025-08-21 08:09

Group 1 - The main contract for soybean meal futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 3105.00 yuan, closing at 3113.00 yuan with a drop of 1.05% [1] - Various institutions have differing short-term outlooks for soybean meal, with Zhengxin Futures predicting a strong short-term fluctuation, Hualian Futures expecting wide fluctuations, and Jianxin Futures maintaining a strong medium-term outlook [2][3][4] Group 2 - Zhengxin Futures highlights a market dynamic of weak reality versus strong expectations, noting that a large volume of imported soybeans will ensure sufficient soybean meal supply, but potential supply-demand gaps in Q4 due to US-China tariffs and reduced US soybean production could drive up import costs [2] - Hualian Futures points out that weather conditions in the Midwest may affect soybean yield, with a significant number of soybean pods reported in Nebraska, while Indiana's pod count is slightly lower than last year but still at historical highs [3] - Jianxin Futures notes that recent favorable factors include the anti-dumping investigation against Canadian canola, which may hinder canola imports, and the continued 23% tariff on US soybeans, suggesting that while Brazil may partially fill the supply gap, rising import costs are likely [4]