万孚生物(300482)：业绩短期承压 静待扰动消退后发展向好

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a year-over-year revenue decrease of 20.9% and a net profit drop of 46.8% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.246 billion yuan and a net profit of 189 million yuan, with a significant decline in operating cash flow to -56 million yuan [1] - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 445 million yuan, down 37.64% year-over-year, and a net profit of 6 million yuan, reflecting a 99.95% decrease [1] Group 2: Business Segment Analysis - The drug testing business showed recovery with a revenue of 145 million yuan, up 4.3% year-over-year, benefiting from a strong position on Amazon in the U.S. [2] - Infectious disease testing revenue was 379 million yuan, down 21.1% year-over-year, attributed to lower respiratory disease prevalence compared to the previous year [2] - Chronic disease management testing generated 563 million yuan, down 26.1% year-over-year, impacted by medical procurement policies, but future growth is expected with platform upgrades [2] Group 3: Profitability and Innovation - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 62.87%, a decrease of 1.47 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to a higher proportion of lower-margin drug testing [3] - The company is pursuing a dual-track R&D strategy focusing on expanding existing product lines and developing new technology platforms, which is expected to enhance its market position in POCT [3] Group 4: Revenue Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 2.668 billion, 3.081 billion, and 3.520 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth rates of -12.9%, 15.5%, and 14.2% respectively [4] - Expected net profits for the same period are 403 million, 500 million, and 615 million yuan, with respective growth rates of -28.2%, 24.1%, and 23.0% [4]