新洋丰(000902)：毛利率逐步回升 2025上半年业绩快速增长

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 9.398 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.63%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 951 million yuan, up 28.98% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.97%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.32%, with a net profit of 437 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.96% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 15.1% [1] - The average price of compound fertilizer (45% S (15-15-15)) in Hubei was 3002.20 yuan/ton in the first half of 2025, showing a slight increase compared to the first half of 2024, while the Q2 average price was 3057.05 yuan/ton, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.72% [1] Group 2 - The demand for economic crops is strong, and the prospects for new fertilizers are broad, with conventional compound fertilizer revenue at 3.826 billion yuan, accounting for 41%, and new compound fertilizer revenue at 2.85 billion yuan, accounting for 30% in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company has been enhancing the research and development of new fertilizers, with sales of new fertilizers increasing from 548,500 tons in 2018 to 1.38 million tons in 2024 [2] - The company is investing in new fertilizer projects, including a 350,000 tons/year project in Aksu, Xinjiang, and a planned 1 million tons/year project in Huaiyang Chemical Park, Anhui [2] Group 3 - The company has established a complete industrial chain system through vertical integration, with a compound fertilizer capacity of 7.98 million tons and agricultural-grade monoammonium phosphate capacity of 1.7 million tons [3] - The company has a significant cost advantage due to its highly integrated operations, including sulfuric acid capacity of 4.12 million tons and phosphate rock capacity of 900,000 tons [3] - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 20.62% in net profit attributable to shareholders over the next three years, with a target price of 17.68 yuan based on a 13x PE for 2025 [3]