华尔街罕见观点：美通缩即将来袭，问题出在房地产市场

Core Viewpoint - The Rosenberg Research company predicts a significant decline in U.S. inflation, potentially dropping to near 1%, driven primarily by a downturn in the real estate market [1][2]. Real Estate Market Analysis - The company has observed substantial signs of decline in the real estate sector, with its proprietary real estate market activity index indicating the most severe downturn since the 2009 financial crisis [2][4]. - Out of the 11 indicators used to measure real estate activity, 10 have shown significant declines over the past six months, with the largest drops in housing starts (down 23.9%), new single-family home sales (down 23.7%), existing home sales (down 16.1%), quarterly new tenant rent index (down 14.2%), and potential buyer traffic (down 7 percentage points) [4]. Price Impact and CPI Forecast - Despite the overall decline in real estate activity, the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index has increased by 0.8% over the past six months, with housing prices accounting for about one-third of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [4][5]. - The anticipated decline in housing prices could lead to a year-over-year CPI increase of 1.2% to 1.8% by Q2 2026, depending on the scale of tariff impacts [5]. - The current low rental prices are expected to compress the housing component of the CPI, with a lag time of approximately 12 months, suggesting that the real estate market downturn will have prolonged deflationary effects until 2026 [5].