如何看待广东火电资产盈利差异？

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant regional differences in electricity demand within Guangdong province, leading to variations in spot electricity prices in the power market [1][2]. Current Situation - Under low electricity prices, profitability among thermal power assets is diverging due to regional demand disparities [2]. - The Guangdong electricity spot market employs node marginal pricing, closely tied to local electricity demand, resulting in different spot prices across regions [2]. Regional Differences - The report notes that the Pearl River Delta region experiences notably higher spot electricity prices, while certain areas in eastern and northern Guangdong have competitive advantages, and the western region faces higher price pressures [2]. Asset Differences - High-efficiency coal power units are expected to perform better in profitability, with 1 million kW units achieving net profits above 0.01 yuan/KWh, and some reaching 0.02 yuan/KWh [3]. - In contrast, smaller units (30,000 kW and below) are likely to face losses, indicating significant profitability pressure [3]. Outlook - The annual long-term electricity price in Guangdong is nearing its bottom, with limited room for further decline, as the average transaction price is 0.392 yuan/KWh, with a downward adjustment of 15.67% [4]. - The capacity price for coal power units is set to increase to 165 yuan per kW per year starting in 2026, which is expected to stabilize overall profitability for coal power units in the province [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high-capacity coal power units, as profitability varies significantly across different regions and types of power generation [6]. - Recommended companies include Baoneng New Energy, China Resources Power (H shares), Guangdong Power A, Guangzhou Development, Shenzhen Energy, and Suihengyun A [6].