中加基金配置周报|中美关税继续暂停，美国核心通胀走高

Economic Data Summary - In the first seven months of the year, China's total social financing increased by 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. As of the end of July, M2 grew by 8.8% year-on-year, M1 by 5.6%, and the stock of social financing increased by 9% [1] - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises in China grew by 5.7% year-on-year, while retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year. From January to July, fixed asset investment grew by 1.6% year-on-year, with real estate development investment declining by 12% [1] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July remained flat at 2.7% year-on-year, below the expected 2.8%, while the core CPI rose by 3.1%, exceeding expectations and reaching the highest level since February [2] Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 500 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on August 15, with a six-month term. This, combined with a previous operation, resulted in a total of 300 billion yuan in mid-term liquidity injection for the month [2] - The PBOC's second-quarter monetary policy report emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on maintaining ample liquidity and supporting sectors such as technology innovation and small enterprises [3] Trade and Tariff Developments - The U.S. and China agreed to suspend the implementation of additional tariffs for 90 days starting August 12, with the U.S. committing to adjust tariffs on Chinese goods [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary clarified that he did not intend to pressure the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, despite previous comments suggesting a potential series of rate cuts [3] Industry Performance - In the real estate sector, land transaction area decreased, leading to a drop in transaction prices for commercial housing and a weakening of second-hand housing prices [8] - The automotive sector maintained high sales levels, with wholesale and retail sales growth rates of 12.08% and 6.10% year-on-year, respectively [9] Market Trends - The A-share market saw a rise, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 8.58%, driven by positive inflation data and the suspension of tariffs between the U.S. and China [21] - In the bond market, credit bond rates increased, while government bond rates showed a mixed trend, reflecting market risk preferences and economic data pressures [31][33] Commodity Prices - Agricultural product prices saw a rebound, with vegetable prices rising and fruit prices declining. Pork prices fell to 20.05 yuan [14] - Industrial product prices showed mixed trends, with coal, copper, aluminum, and steel prices rising, while oil and cement prices fell [16]