3 Energy Stocks That Could Rally If the Oil Bears Are Wrong

Industry Overview - OPEC+ nations' decision to increase oil production raises concerns about an oversupplied market, compounded by hopes for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, leading to poor performance in energy stocks [1] - The bear case for oil may be overly crowded, with potential underestimated demand that could benefit energy stocks in late 2025 and into 2026 [2] Demand Factors - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut of 25 basis points (0.25%) could stimulate industrial activity, travel, and freight, positively impacting oil demand [2] - Residential demand for electricity and heating fuels is sticky and seasonal, with oil-fired generation still relevant in some regions, indicating less elastic consumption than assumed [3] Supply Considerations - OPEC+ nations have not committed to supply increases after September, which could tighten supply and lead to higher oil prices [3] - Geopolitical risks, including potential higher tariffs on countries like India, may persist regardless of the Russia-Ukraine conflict resolution [4] Company Insights: Chevron - Chevron's stock is up 7.7% in 2025, attributed to the completion of its merger with Hess Co., enhancing exposure to Guyana's oil reserves [6] - The company produces between 800,000 and 850,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) in the Permian Basin, focusing on capital efficiency as a growth driver [7] - Analysts have a consensus price target of $164.11 for Chevron, indicating a 5% upside [8] Company Insights: Exxon Mobil - Exxon Mobil, after acquiring Pioneer Natural Resources, is the largest operator in the Permian Basin, generating approximately 1.6 million to 1.8 million boe/d, with plans to reach two million boe/d by 2027 [9] - The stock is down approximately 0.75% in 2025, but analysts project a consensus price of $125.84, offering a 17% upside [10] Company Insights: Schlumberger - Schlumberger is considered a high-beta play in the oil sector, with potential for greater upside if demand exceeds expectations [12] - The company’s stock is down 12.8% in 2025, but analysts forecast a price target of $49.28, representing an increase of over 47% [14]