亚洲炼油商寻油版图扩张难挽狂澜 资深顾问：原油正逼近供应过剩“临界点”

Core Viewpoint - Asian refiners are diversifying their crude oil sources beyond traditional Middle Eastern suppliers, but this strategy has not successfully boosted the market amid expectations of an oversupply in the crude oil market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Asia consumes about 40% of the world's oil, historically relying on the Persian Gulf for crude supply [1]. - U.S. President Donald Trump's trade and foreign policies have prompted refiners to purchase crude from the U.S., Brazil, and Nigeria [1]. - The surge in light sweet crude oil purchases was expected to support Brent crude prices, but the price premium of Brent over Dubai crude has fallen to its lowest level since April [1]. - Market expectations indicate that crude oil oversupply will begin in the next quarter due to increased production from OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - Global average daily oil production has increased by 1.4 million barrels compared to the same period in 2025, exceeding the International Energy Agency's (IEA) demand growth forecast [2]. - Analysts predict a weakening of market demand in Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year [2]. - The reallocation of crude oil flows due to Trump's policies has created uncertainty and volatility in the market [2]. - The IEA forecasts that global oil demand growth will be less than half of 2023's rate in the coming years [5]. Group 3: Price Competitiveness - The narrowing price gap between Brent and Dubai crude allows U.S. and West African crude to enter the Asian market at more competitive prices [3]. - Increased demand for U.S. crude has raised prices along the U.S. Gulf Coast, but has not supported broader domestic benchmark prices [5]. - Major banks are bearish on oil prices, with Goldman Sachs predicting Brent crude will slightly decline to the mid-$60 range by year-end [5].