降息前市场颤抖？历史揭示：9个月空窗期实为美股利好

Core Viewpoint - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in four weeks, marking nine months since the last rate cut. Historical data suggests that such a long interval between rate cuts may lead to positive market impacts [1]. Group 1: Historical Data and Market Reactions - Carson Group's chief market strategist, Ryan Detrick, indicates that longer intervals (5 to 12 months) between rate cuts often predict stock market increases. In 11 instances of such intervals, the S&P 500 index rose in 10 cases, with above-average gains [1]. - Data compiled by Carson Investment Research shows that when the Federal Reserve waits 5 to 12 months to lower rates, the S&P 500 index tends to experience strong growth in the following year. Since 1970, in 11 such events, 10 indicated an increase in the index one year later, with an average gain of nearly 13% [1][2]. Group 2: Short-term vs Long-term Market Trends - Short-term market performance is complex, with about half of the one-month returns being negative. However, long-term returns tend to be more positive, with stronger bullish sentiment as the waiting period extends [2]. - The average returns for the S&P 500 index following rate cuts show a mixed short-term performance but a more favorable long-term outlook, with 90.9% of cases resulting in positive returns over the next year [2]. Group 3: Current Market Sentiment - The U.S. stock market indices opened lower as investors await remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference [3].