Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Should You Buy?

Core Viewpoint - Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ended July 2025, with the actual results being a significant factor influencing its near-term stock price [1][2]. Financial Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to reveal quarterly earnings of $4.97 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 6.2%, while revenues are projected to reach $2.64 billion, representing a 3.5% increase from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.34% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a slight positive adjustment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that Ulta has a positive Earnings ESP of +1.39%, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, which, when combined with the positive Earnings ESP, indicates a strong potential for an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Ulta exceeded the expected earnings of $5.77 per share by delivering $6.70, resulting in a surprise of +16.12% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, Ulta has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times [14]. Industry Context - Another player in the retail sector, Five Below (FIVE), is expected to report earnings of $0.61 per share for the same quarter, indicating a year-over-year increase of 13%, with revenues projected at $997.33 million, up 20.2% from the previous year [18]. - Despite a significant downward revision of 130.8% in the consensus EPS estimate for Five Below over the last 30 days, a higher Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +13.35%, suggesting a likely earnings beat [19].