美国领先经济指数小幅下跌 经济增速承压信号显现

Group 1 - The US Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased by 0.1% in July 2025, reaching 98.7, following a 0.3% decline in June. The cumulative decline from January to July was 2.7%, significantly higher than the 1.0% drop from July of the previous year to January [1] - Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, a senior manager at the Conference Board, noted that consumer pessimism regarding business prospects and weak new orders continue to weigh on the index. However, stock prices remain a significant positive support for the LEI [1] - Despite the negative growth rate over six months, there was an improvement in July, although it is not sufficient to avoid signaling a potential economic recession. The Conference Board does not currently expect a recession but anticipates an economic slowdown in the second half of 2025, with tariffs' negative impacts gradually becoming evident [1] Group 2 - The US Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose by 0.2% in July, reaching 114.9, while remaining unchanged in June. The cumulative growth from January to July was 0.9%, surpassing the previous six months' growth of 0.6% [2] - The CEI consists of four components: non-farm employment, personal income (excluding transfer payments), manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production, which are critical indicators for assessing the risk of a recession. In July, three of these indicators improved, except for industrial production [2] - The US Lagging Economic Index (LAG) remained unchanged at 119.9 in both June and July, with a cumulative growth of 0.9% from January to July, reversing the previous six months' decline of 0.1% [2]