RCL Stock Rises 38% in 3 Months: Should You Buy Now or Hold Steady?

Core Insights - Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) has seen a stock increase of 38.4% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry's 15.2% rise and the S&P 500's growth of 9.9% [1][2][8] Group 1: Growth Drivers - The recent stock surge is attributed to stronger-than-expected close-in demand and contributions from the TUI Cruises joint venture, with booking trends remaining robust into 2025 and 2026 [2][3] - Royal Caribbean's growth is supported by a strong pipeline of new ships, expansion into high-margin private destinations, and entry into river cruising, which are expected to enhance financial targets for 2027 and beyond [3][9] - Record load factors of 110% in Q2 2025 and strong booking volumes indicate resilient demand for cruise vacations, allowing the company to raise its full-year earnings per share (EPS) guidance by 31% year over year [7][12] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company expects adjusted EPS for 2025 to be between $15.41 and $15.55, an increase from previous estimates, reflecting strengthened analyst confidence [12] - Net yields rose more than 5% year over year in Q2, with onboard spending reaching record levels, contributing to improved margins and cash flow growth [10][11] Group 3: Challenges and Cost Pressures - Royal Caribbean faces rising cost pressures, with net cruise costs excluding fuel increasing by 2.1% year over year in Q2 2025, and projected to rise by 6% to 6.5% in Q3 [18][19] - The company is also dealing with external factors such as geopolitical tensions that could disrupt itineraries and affect booking momentum [20] Group 4: Valuation and Market Position - RCL is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 18.96X, slightly below the industry average, indicating an attractive investment opportunity [22] - The stock is trading above its 50-day moving average, suggesting solid upward momentum and price stability [24] Group 5: Investment Outlook - The current investment verdict for Royal Caribbean is to hold, as the company navigates rising cost pressures while aiming for sustainable margin expansion [27][28]