部分地区猪价跌入“6元时代” 专家：预计明年年中生猪出栏量将现拐点

Core Viewpoint - The average price of external three yuan pigs in China has dropped to 13.82 yuan per kilogram as of August 21, reflecting a 4.2% month-on-month decline and a 33% year-on-year decrease, primarily due to weak demand and market sentiment [1]. Price Trends - The average pig price in many northern regions has fallen below 13 yuan per kilogram, entering a "6 yuan era" for average prices per jin [1]. - Short-term outlook indicates that pig prices will continue to fluctuate at low levels, with pressure from market supply and demand remaining weak [1]. Market Dynamics - The expected improvement in consumption due to cooler weather may provide some marginal support, but the overall supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to change significantly [1]. - The industry is entering a phase of efficiency competition, with potential adjustments in production capacity expected to lead to a turning point in pig output by mid-2026, shifting from growth to decline [1]. Future Outlook - The pig price is anticipated to transition into a new cycle characterized by "small fluctuations and stable profitability" [1].