Starz Entertainment Pivoting To Digital Strategy

Core Insights - Starz Entertainment Corp. reported modest results for 2Q25, missing revenue and adjusted EPS estimates, with revenue of $319.7 million, down 8.0% YoY from $347.6 million in 2Q24 [2][14] - The company experienced an operating loss of $26.9 million in 2Q25, compared to an operating income of $10.1 million in the prior-year period [2][14] - Starz ended the quarter with 12.2 million U.S. OTT subscribers, a sequential decline of 120,000, and total U.S. subscribers reached 17.6 million, down 410,000 from the previous quarter [2][15] Financial Performance - Adjusted OIBDA for 2Q25 was $33.4 million, down from $56.3 million in 2Q24, leading to a decrease in adjusted OIBDA margin to 10.4% from 16.2% [2][14] - The net loss for the quarter was $42.5 million, compared to a net income of $4.2 million in 2Q24, with diluted loss per share at $2.54 versus diluted earnings per share of $0.26 in 2Q24 [2][14] Subscriber Trends - The decline in subscribers was attributed to lower OTT additions and ongoing pressure on linear subscribers, particularly due to the underperformance of BMF Season 4 [2][15] - Despite the overall decline, the Outlander prequel, Blood of My Blood, achieved strong performance, becoming the third-highest series premiere in Starz history for subscriber additions [2][10] Strategic Outlook - Starz is focusing on a digital-first growth strategy and expects sequential revenue and OTT subscriber growth in upcoming quarters, supported by a strong content lineup [2][8] - The company aims to reach $200 million in adjusted OIBDA by year-end and convert 70% of that into free cash flow by 2026 [2][8] Valuation - The intrinsic value of Starz Entertainment Corp. is estimated at $18.00 per share, based on a 2026e EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.4x, maintaining a 'Buy' rating with an implied upside of 33.3% from the current market price of $13.50 [6][16] - The valuation is sensitive to fluctuations in adjusted EBITDA and EV/EBITDA multiples, with potential changes impacting the target prices significantly [18] Company Strategy - Starz is strategically exiting seven international territories to streamline its business and is prioritizing lower-cost original content production [21] - The company is targeting key demographics and aims to achieve a 20% margin run rate by FY28 to boost profitability [11][12]