部分地区猪价跌入“6元时代” 中央冻猪肉收储即将开启！政策影响几何？生猪出栏量拐点何时到来？专家详细解读

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced plans to conduct central frozen pork reserve collection due to a continuous decline in pork prices since early July, driven by weak demand and increased supply [1][2]. Price Trends - Since early July, pork prices have been on a downward trend, with the national average pork-to-grain price ratio falling below 6:1, entering a warning zone [2][8]. - As of August 19, the average price of lean pork was 18.08 yuan per kilogram, down 0.8% week-on-week and 34.8% year-on-year [6]. Supply and Demand Factors - Supply pressures are significant, with the breeding sow inventory remaining high at 40.43 million, exceeding normal levels by 3.7% [7]. - Demand remains weak, with low consumption during the hot summer months despite some seasonal boosts from events like school openings [7]. Government Intervention - The government plans to collect 10,000 tons of frozen pork, which is expected to alleviate supply pressure and stabilize prices [9][13]. - This collection is part of a broader strategy to ensure market stability and protect the interests of farmers [13]. Future Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate that pork prices will remain low with limited rebound potential due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [13]. - In the medium to long term, the industry may see a turning point in pig output by mid-2026, transitioning to a phase of "small fluctuations and stable profits" [13].