Why Is CN (CNI) Down 2.6% Since Last Earnings Report?

Core Viewpoint - Canadian National Railway (CNI) reported disappointing second-quarter 2025 earnings, missing both earnings and revenue estimates, leading to concerns about its future performance and potential for recovery [2][10]. Financial Performance - CNI's earnings for Q2 2025 were $1.35 per share (C$1.87), missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.37, and remained flat year-over-year [2]. - Revenues for Q2 2025 were $3.09 billion (C$4.3 billion), missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.16 billion and declining 2.4% year-over-year [2]. - Revenue ton-miles (RTMs) decreased by 1% year-over-year, while carloads dropped by 0.4% [3]. - Operating expenses fell by 5.2% year-over-year due to cost-cutting efforts [3]. Segment Performance - Freight revenues, which accounted for 95.7% of total revenues, decreased by 1.5% year-over-year, with declines in petroleum and chemicals (5%), metals and minerals (7%), forest products (8%), intermodal (3%), and automotive (6%) [5]. - Revenues from grain and fertilizers rose by 13% compared to 2024 figures, while coal segment revenues remained flat [5][6]. Liquidity and Share Repurchase - CNI ended Q2 with cash and cash equivalents of C$216 million, down from C$232 million in the previous quarter, and long-term debt increased to C$19.3 billion from C$18.9 billion [7]. - CNI generated C$1.75 billion from operating activities and reported free cash flow of C$922 million [7]. - The company repurchased 13.9 million common shares under its previous Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) and has plans to repurchase up to 20 million common shares under the current NCIB [8]. Future Outlook - For full-year 2025, CNI anticipates mid to high-single-digit adjusted earnings per share (EPS) growth, revised down from a previous guidance of 10%-15%, and plans to invest approximately C$3.4 billion in its capital program [10]. - CNI has withdrawn its financial outlook for the 2024-2026 period due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and volatility [10]. - Estimates for the stock have trended downward, indicating a potential for continued underperformance [11][13].