Why Is KeyCorp (KEY) Down 3.1% Since Last Earnings Report?

Core Viewpoint - KeyCorp's recent earnings report shows a significant year-over-year increase in earnings and revenues, but also highlights rising expenses and provisions that could impact future performance [2][4][10]. Financial Performance - KeyCorp's Q2 2025 earnings per share from continuing operations was 35 cents, exceeding estimates by a penny and reflecting a 40% increase from the prior year [2]. - Net income from continuing operations attributable to common shareholders was $387 million, up 63.3% year over year [3]. - Total revenues increased 20.9% year over year to $1.83 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.80 billion [4]. - Net interest income (NII) increased 27.9% year over year to $1.15 billion, with net interest margin (NIM) expanding 62 basis points to 2.66% [5]. - Non-interest income rose 10% year over year to $690 million, driven by increases in most fee income components [7]. Expenses and Provisions - Non-interest expenses grew 7% year over year to $1.15 billion, attributed to increases in nearly all cost components [8]. - The provision for credit losses was $138 million, up 38% year over year, indicating potential credit quality concerns [10]. Loan and Deposit Trends - Average total loans were $105.72 billion, up 1.3% from the previous quarter, while average total deposits decreased to $147.45 billion [9]. - The decline in deposits was primarily due to reductions in higher-cost commercial client balances and retail CDs [9]. Credit Quality - The allowance for loan and lease losses was $1.45 billion, down 6.5% from the prior year, while non-performing assets as a percentage of total loans decreased to 0.66% [11]. Capital Ratios - KeyCorp's tangible common equity to tangible assets ratio improved to 7.8%, and the Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio rose to 13.4% [12]. Future Outlook - Management expects average loan balances to decline by 1-3% in 2025, with period-end loans anticipated to rise by approximately 2% [13]. - NII is projected to increase by 20-22% in 2025, with NIM expected to reach around 2.75% by Q4 2025 [14]. - Non-interest income is expected to rise by 5% or more in 2025, while non-interest expenses are anticipated to increase by 3-5% [15]. Market Position - KeyCorp has experienced a downward trend in estimates since the earnings release, currently holding a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [16][18]. - In comparison, State Street Corporation, a peer in the same industry, reported a revenue increase of 8.1% year over year and has a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [20].