WTO前首席经济学家罗伯特·库普曼接受《环球时报》专访：美政策制定者误诊经济“疾病”，并开错“药方”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. tariff policies on global trade and the potential economic consequences for the U.S. and its trading partners, emphasizing that the current changes in tariff policies are not indicative of a complete halt but rather a slowdown in frequency [1][3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policies - The U.S. has shifted its tariff policies, which are seen as a departure from historical norms, with only the U.S. accepting the new trade system being proposed by the current administration [3]. - The U.S. government aims to reshape the global trade system, but this approach is criticized as ineffective in addressing trade imbalances [3][4]. - The current tariff policies may lead to a higher cost of production in the U.S., potentially isolating it from global trade dynamics [5]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Tariffs may temporarily increase the market share of U.S. products, but automation is identified as the primary reason for the decline in manufacturing jobs, not tariffs [4]. - The U.S. economy is close to full employment, and any push for manufacturing to return could disrupt labor and capital distribution, potentially lowering economic growth rates [4][5]. - The belief that high tariffs will enhance efficiency and innovation is challenged, as historical evidence suggests that such protectionism may stifle innovation without additional supportive policies [5]. Group 3: Consumer and Business Effects - The burden of tariffs is primarily borne by U.S. importers and consumers, with 80% to 90% of tariff costs being absorbed domestically rather than by exporters [5]. - Rising prices due to tariffs may lead to increasing dissatisfaction among American consumers regarding the current trade policies [5].