标普全球最新研究报告：中国企业在“关税时代”走向全球南方

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty brought by US tariff policies is driving Chinese companies to shift their business focus towards global southern countries, potentially leading to a "new global business order" where south-south trade becomes a new focal point, with Chinese multinational companies as key participants [3]. Trade Growth - Over the past decade, China's exports to global southern countries have doubled, while exports to the US and Western Europe grew by 28% and 58% respectively during the same period. From 2020 to 2024, exports to southern countries are expected to grow by 65% [4]. - China's current export volume to global southern countries is approximately $1.6 trillion, exceeding the combined exports to the US and Western Europe (around $1 trillion) by over 50% [4]. - Since 2015, imports from global southern countries have also more than doubled, reaching $1 trillion, which is six times the imports from the US ($164 billion) and nearly four times from Western Europe ($260 billion) [4]. Sectoral Focus - Different regions have distinct focuses in product trade, with significant growth in agricultural products between China and ASEAN, and enhanced cooperation in electronics, automotive manufacturing, and textiles [6]. - Trade with Africa is also on the rise, expanding into high-tech, digital economy, artificial intelligence, and climate change response sectors [6]. Investment Trends - The uncertainty from US tariffs is acting as a catalyst for Chinese companies to explore opportunities in global southern countries, with stable bilateral relations facilitating market access [7]. - Chinese companies are increasingly investing locally rather than merely transshipping goods, requiring substantial investments in manufacturing capacity, infrastructure, and workforce training [7]. - Investment inflows from China to key Southeast Asian partners like Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam have averaged $8.8 billion annually, with sectoral investments varying by country [7]. Case Study: Indonesia - In Indonesia, Chinese companies are aligning their investments with local development goals, such as building nickel smelting plants and participating in the electric vehicle supply chain [8]. Challenges and Opportunities - Despite the growth opportunities, Chinese companies face challenges such as unfamiliar business partners, inadequate legal frameworks, and concerns over dumping practices in host countries [9]. - The trade structure, where southern countries primarily export bulk commodities to China while importing manufactured goods, complicates rapid adjustments [9]. - Chinese companies are encouraged to explore the internal market potential of global southern countries and conduct full supply chain R&D tailored to local consumers [9].