品浩：美国股市上涨不能反映经济状况

Group 1 - The distinction between the performance of the U.S. stock market and the overall economy is crucial [1] - The S&P 500 index has risen nearly 10% year-to-date, but the journey has been volatile, with a 20% pullback in April [1] - Despite the stock market performance, actual consumer spending growth for the first half of 2025 is projected at an annualized rate of 1%, while actual GDP growth has been slowing [1] Group 2 - A Bloomberg survey indicates a 35% average probability of the U.S. entering a recession in the next year, which is not surprising given the economic indicators [1]