美联储官员表态削弱9月降息押注 美债收益率走高约4BP

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3.70 basis points to 4.33% and the 2-year yield rising by 4.40 basis points to 3.79%, indicating a decrease in market bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester emphasized the importance of maintaining a moderately tight policy stance to bring inflation back to target levels, citing that current inflation remains too high and has been on the rise over the past year [1] - Mester noted that there are no clear signs of economic recession, which diminishes the need for stimulus policies, although she acknowledged some concerns in the labor market [1] Group 2 - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that the current federal funds rate target range of 4.25%-4.5% is "slightly tight," and there is intense debate within the Fed regarding the necessity of a rate cut [2] - Bostic expects U.S. economic growth to be "relatively moderate" this year, with a potential rebound next year as businesses gain clearer insights into U.S. economic policy direction [2] - The latest CME FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in September has increased to 25%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut has decreased to 75% [2]