智通财经网·2025-08-22 01:27Core Viewpoint - The spandex industry is expected to benefit from increased downstream penetration and functional consumption trends, with a projected apparent consumption of 1.0269 million tons in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.21%, significantly higher than polyester and other synthetic fibers [1][2]. Demand Side Summary - The demand for spandex is primarily concentrated in the textile and apparel sector, with 76% of spandex used for clothing production in 2024. The CAGR for apparent consumption from 2020 to 2024 is projected at 9.21%, outpacing mainstream synthetic fibers like polyester [2]. - Sales in domestic apparel, footwear, and textiles are expected to grow year-on-year from 2023 to 2024, with a cumulative sales growth of 3.10% in the first half of 2025. This growth in clothing consumption is anticipated to further drive spandex demand [2]. - The emergence of trendy products such as yoga and sun-protective clothing since 2020 has significantly boosted overall spandex demand. In 2024, spandex exports are projected to reach 78,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.23%, providing strong support for spandex demand [2]. Supply Side Summary - The spandex industry is facing severe overcapacity, with negative profit margins and historically high inventory levels. In 2024, new spandex capacity is expected to increase by 135,000 tons, a year-on-year growth of 10.88%, continuing a trend of overcapacity since 2022 [3]. - The average gross profit for spandex is projected to be -5,217 yuan per ton by August 2025, indicating over two years of continuous losses. High inventory levels are affecting operational willingness, leading to a decline in overall industry operating rates compared to the same period in 2024 [3]. - Some companies are beginning to clear out outdated capacity, with reports of production line shutdowns, such as Tai Guang Industry and Xiao Xing Spandex, indicating that capacity reduction is underway [3]. Market Outlook - With the ongoing capacity clearance, the supply-demand balance in the spandex market may gradually improve, allowing leading companies to benefit first. The unit costs for leading firms like Huafeng Chemical and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber are significantly lower than the industry average, enabling them to maintain positive gross margins even in a low-demand environment [4]. - If no substantial anti-competitive policies are implemented, the spandex industry may see gradual improvement in market conditions as demand increases. The potential for capacity upgrades or clearances of older production facilities could alleviate supply pressures in the future [4]. - Recommended stocks include Huafeng Chemical, with beneficiaries including Xinxiang Chemical Fiber and Taihe New Materials [4].