风暴眼中发声！华尔街前瞻：高盛预计鲍威尔不会明言降息 但将为9月行动铺平道路

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to emphasize the independence of the Fed during his upcoming speech, amidst significant political pressure and scrutiny from the Trump administration [1][2][3] Political and Policy Context - Powell's speech is anticipated to address the Fed's independence, especially given the political challenges he faces, including ongoing criticism from President Trump [2][3] - The theme of the speech, "Economic Outlook and Framework Assessment," suggests Powell will discuss macroeconomic conditions and long-term policy goals, which are evaluated every five years [3][4] - Market expectations indicate that Powell may pave the way for a rate cut in September, as his past speeches have often signaled major policy shifts [3][4] Market Reactions and Expectations - Analysts predict that Powell will not explicitly signal a September rate cut but will indicate potential support for such a move [4] - The Kansas City Fed President has stated that more data is needed before supporting a rate cut, reflecting a cautious stance among some Fed members [4][5] - The labor market's condition and the impact of Trump's tariff policies on inflation will be critical points in Powell's address [4][5] Inflation and Employment Dynamics - Recent labor statistics show weak job growth, yet many policymakers still describe the labor market as "robust," indicating a lack of urgency for rate cuts [5] - Concerns about inflation are prevalent among Fed members, with some expressing skepticism about the necessity of a September rate cut, which could provoke political backlash [5][6] - Powell is likely to maintain a cautious approach and avoid pre-committing to a September rate cut, focusing instead on a robust long-term policy framework [5][6] Framework Adjustments - The Fed's 2020 adoption of a "flexible average inflation targeting" framework may be revised, as it has been linked to the current inflation surge [5][6] - Economists expect Powell to advocate for a return to a more preventive policy stance, reflecting the realities of the current economic environment [6]