Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-08-22 01:56Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the increasing demand for spandex driven by its growing penetration in the textile and apparel sector, with 76% of spandex used for clothing production in 2024 and an apparent consumption volume of 102.69 million tons, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 9.21% from 2020 to 2024, significantly higher than other mainstream fibers like polyester filament and staple [1][2] - The sales revenue of domestic apparel, footwear, and textile categories is expected to grow year-on-year from 2023 to 2024, with a cumulative sales increase of 3.10% in the first half of 2025, indicating a positive trend in clothing consumption that will further boost spandex demand [2] - The emergence of trendy products such as yoga and sun-protective clothing since 2020 has notably driven the overall demand for spandex, alongside a projected export volume of 7.88 million tons in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 13.23% [2] Group 2 - The spandex industry is currently facing severe overcapacity, with nominal production capacity consistently exceeding apparent consumption since 2022, leading to prolonged negative profit margins and high inventory levels [3] - As of August 2025, the average gross profit margin for spandex is projected to be -5,217 yuan per ton, indicating over two years of continuous losses, which has resulted in reduced operational willingness among companies and a decline in overall industry operating rates [3] - The exit of outdated production capacities is underway, exemplified by the closure of operations by companies like Taiguang and Xiaoxing, which will contribute to the gradual clearing of excess capacity in the spandex industry [3][4] Group 3 - The supply-demand dynamics of the spandex market may gradually improve as excess capacity is cleared, with leading companies likely to benefit first from this shift [4] - In 2024, leading spandex manufacturers Huafeng Chemical and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber are expected to have unit costs of 22,406 and 25,263 yuan per ton, respectively, which are significantly lower than the industry average of 29,711 yuan per ton, allowing them to maintain positive gross margins of 13.66% and 0.30% despite a challenging market environment [5] - If no substantial anti-involution policies are implemented, the ongoing capacity clearing combined with rising demand could lead to gradual improvements in the spandex industry's overall market conditions, with Huafeng Chemical recommended as a key investment target [5]