Core Viewpoint - HSBC Holdings reports that China Hongqiao's strong performance in the first half of 2025 is driven by rising demand and increases in both alumina and aluminum prices and sales [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - China Hongqiao achieved a net profit of 12.4 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35%, in line with previous earnings forecasts [1] - The strong profit performance is attributed to a 10% year-on-year increase in alumina prices and a 3% increase in aluminum prices [1] - Sales volumes for aluminum alloys, processed products, and alumina increased by approximately 2%, 3%, and 16% respectively, benefiting from strong downstream demand and an increase in market share [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - HSBC expects aluminum prices to remain robust in the second half of 2025, projected to be between 20,600 and 21,300 RMB per ton, while alumina prices are expected to be between 3,200 and 3,300 RMB per ton [2] - The company plans capital expenditures of 12 to 13 billion RMB for 2025, consistent with 2024 levels [2] - Additional capacity is expected to be relocated to Yunnan in the second half of 2025, with Yunnan's capacity projected to reach 2.2 million tons by year-end [2] Group 3: Dividend and Share Buyback - Although the company has not announced an interim dividend, guidance indicates that the annual payout ratio will remain at 63%, equivalent to an attractive dividend yield of approximately 8.5% [1] - The board has announced a new share buyback plan with a total repurchase amount of no less than 3 billion HKD [1] Group 4: Market Conditions - Despite a potential decline in profit growth year-on-year in the second half of 2025 due to a high comparative base from record alumina prices in Q4 2024, multiple favorable factors remain [2] - The 45 million ton production capacity cap is a key measure to maintain supply discipline [2] - Investments in the power grid, electric vehicle sales, and export recovery are expected to continue supporting demand [2]
汇丰：基本面稳健+股息率仍具吸引力 维持中国宏桥(01378)“买入”评级 上调目标价至25.70港元