氮肥企业生产应更加谨慎理性

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while domestic nitrogen fertilizer supply is secure for the second half of the year, various adverse factors such as declining agricultural demand, weak industrial demand, and increasing uncertainties in the international market necessitate a more cautious and rational approach from nitrogen fertilizer companies [1][2] - The domestic nitrogen fertilizer supply capacity has been increasing, with an additional urea production capacity of 2.64 million tons expected in the second half of 2024 and 0.95 million tons in the first half of 2025, leading to a cumulative supply increase of over 1.3 million tons [1] - In the first half of this year, domestic nitrogen fertilizer demand also saw growth, with apparent consumption of synthetic ammonia at 38.973 million tons (up 9.3% year-on-year), nitrogen fertilizer at 23.919 million tons (up 7%), and urea at 36.057 million tons (up 9.4%) [1] Group 2 - The nitrogen fertilizer market in the second half of the year is influenced by multiple factors, including increasing pressure from excess domestic capacity, widening cost disparities between coal-based and gas-based enterprises, and a gradual decline in domestic agricultural demand [2] - An estimated 3.38 million tons of synthetic ammonia and 4.22 million tons of urea new production capacity is expected to come online in the second half of the year, with 1.38 million tons of synthetic ammonia and 1.2 million tons of urea already in production [2] - The industry is urged to focus on strict capacity control, rational production management, self-discipline in export mechanisms, international market expansion, technological innovation, digital transformation, and supply-side structural reforms to enhance competitiveness [2]