天然橡胶：原料价格存支撑 胶价震荡

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of August 21, cup rubber is priced at 49.20 THB/kg (-0.15), while latex is at 54.70 THB/kg (0). Yunnan rubber water procurement price is 14,500 CNY/ton (0), Hainan fresh latex at 14,400 CNY/ton (0), Qingdao bonded area Thai standard at 1,810 USD/ton (+20), and Thai mixed at 14,600 CNY/ton (+50) [1] Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate for China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 71.87%, up 2.76 percentage points month-on-month, but down 7.81 percentage points year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate for China's all-steel tire sample enterprises is 64.97%, up 2.35 percentage points month-on-month and up 7.01 percentage points year-on-year. The production of repaired enterprises has returned to normal, leading to a recovery in capacity utilization [1] - In Shandong, the finished product inventory of tire sample enterprises has increased month-on-month. As of August 21, the average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 47.05 days, up 0.32 days month-on-month and up 10.57 days year-on-year. For all-steel tire sample enterprises, the average inventory turnover days is 39.76 days, up 0.25 days month-on-month and down 3.92 days year-on-year [1] Market Conditions and Price Trends - Continuous rainy weather in both domestic and foreign production areas has led to insufficient upstream supply, keeping raw material prices at high levels. The reduction in Qingdao's spot inventory has slowed, and the increase in alternative planting in Yunnan has led to a rise in social inventory in China, expanding market bearish sentiment. Near the end of the month, agents may slightly increase their purchasing volume to meet monthly targets, while downstream continues to focus on regular replenishment [3] - External factors may slow trading in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and safety concerns may lead to suspensions in mining and engineering operations in other areas, negatively impacting overall replacement demand. The current market lacks clear directional guidance, with mixed bullish and bearish sentiments, leading to price fluctuations primarily within the range of 15,000 to 16,500. Future attention will be on the raw material supply situation during the peak production period in major producing areas [3]