部分地区猪价跌入“6元时代”，中央冻猪肉收储即将开启！

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced plans to conduct central frozen pork reserve storage to stabilize pork prices amid a declining trend in pork prices since early July 2023 [1][3][11]. Price Trends and Influencing Factors - Since early July, pork prices have been on a downward trend, primarily due to weak demand and market sentiment, alongside increased supply from earlier pig fattening [3][4]. - The national average pig-to-grain price ratio has fallen below 6:1, entering a warning zone as per the government's monitoring [3][9]. - As of August 21, the average price of external three-yuan pigs has dropped to 13.82 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 4.2% month-on-month and 33% year-on-year [7][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - On the supply side, the number of breeding sows remains high, with 40.43 million sows reported, exceeding normal levels by 3.7% [7]. - Demand remains weak despite some seasonal boosts from events like school openings, as high temperatures have kept pork consumption low [8]. Government Intervention and Market Impact - The government plans to store 10,000 tons of frozen pork, which is expected to alleviate supply pressure and stabilize prices temporarily [11][14]. - This storage initiative is seen as a signal to boost market confidence and prevent panic selling, benefiting both producers and consumers [14]. Future Outlook - In the short term, pork prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels, with potential improvements in consumption as temperatures cool down [14]. - In the medium to long term, the industry may face a turning point in pig output by mid-2026, transitioning to a new cycle characterized by smaller fluctuations and stable profitability [14].